MUMBAI: India’s inflation outlook is highly uncertain at the moment and forecasting it has become complicated due to partial release of data by the National Statistical Office (NSO), said Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday.
More worrisome, however, is the risk to India's economic growth, the governor said. The monetary policy committee, Das said, is of the view that headline inflation may remain firm in the first half of FY21 but should ease in the second half aided by favourable base effect.
By Q3 and Q4 of the current fiscal, the MPC expects headline inflation to fall below the target of 4%. “Thus, the forward guidance of the MPC is directional rather than in terms of levels.