Without any such rules, daily cases could have been half a million by now and a million by mid-June, shows a model built by the COV-IND-19 Study Group, a collective led by Bhramar Mukherjee of the University of Michigan.
Mukherjee was one of the first to predict the imminent second wave, back in February.Predicting a peak around mid-May, Christopher Murray, the IHME director, said on 23 April that the high volume of infections in India showed the virus “may run out of people to infect pretty soon".But another problem with the predictions is the spread of infections to rural areas.