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COVID in 2023: Why virus trends are more difficult to predict three years on

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Why COVID projections have become harder During the early days of the pandemic, simple models could be used to project the number of COVID cases and the likely effect on the population, including demands for health care.

Relatively few variables were needed to produce the first projections. That was because there was one main variant of COVID, the original strain, to which everyone in the world was susceptible.

But now, those simple assumptions no longer hold. Much of the world’s population is estimated to have had COVID and there are significant differences between individual levels of protection in terms of which vaccines, and how many doses, people have received around the world.

In total, 13 billion vaccine doses have been administered – but not equitably. Modelling also works well when people act in ways that are predictable, whether this is normal, pre-pandemic behaviour, or at times of severe social restrictions.

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‘No Coal – No Power’ : Coal shipment delayed to early January 2023 - newsfirst.lk - Sri Lanka - Mozambique
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‘No Coal – No Power’ : Coal shipment delayed to early January 2023
COLOMBO (News 1st) –  Multiple factions allege that motives to commit fraud are linked to the state's delay in procuring coal on time for the continuous operation of the Norochcholai Coal Power Plant, which is the main power plant in the entire country.A coal shipment is expected to reach Sri Lanka on the 5th of January 2023, and according to marine traffic data the bulk carrier with coal had left a port in Mozambique on Sunday (25) bound to Sri Lanka.What is the Coal Crisis & why is coal so important to us?The coal shipment bound to Sri Lanka from Mozambique will determine if the Norocohcholai Coal Power will continue to operate, as it generates a lions share of the electricity demand in the country.A shortage of coal will eventually lead to a complete shutdown of the power plant.The bulk carrier Darya Rama carrying a shipment of coal had left the Port of Maputo in Mozambique at 7:40 AM on Sunday (25), and it expected to lay anchor off the coast of Puttlam at around 4:00 PM on the 5th of January 2023.The vessel was originally scheduled to dock in Sri Lankan on Wednesday, however certain delays had pushed back its arrival date to somewhere between the 3rd and 5th of January 2023.The Chairman of Lanka Coal Company (Private) Limited on the 22nd of December 2022 said that when this shipment reaches Sri Lanka, the existing stocks of coal would have already been exhausted.How much of coal does the Norochcholai Coal Power Plant need to operate on any given day?The Norochcholai Power Plant has three generators, and each of these generators will require 2,500 MT of coal.
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