Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, said the festivals led to a surge because of higher probability of infection spread. “This probability doubled in November as people were travelling and meeting each other much more," he said, citing a disease prevalence model developed by him and his colleagues in a committee set up by the Department of Science and Technology.But the outlook for New Year’s week lies in the answer to why the post-Diwali virus scare was short-lived.
Agrawal said the only logical explanation appears to be that most Indians—around 55% to 60%—had already got infected by now and had become immune to the virus.