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Bank of Canada’s rate decision looms. Will the hot economy push it to hike? - globalnews.ca - Canada
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Bank of Canada’s rate decision looms. Will the hot economy push it to hike?
Bank of Canada’s interest rate pause is set for its toughest challenge yet on Wednesday as policymakers weigh whether another hike is needed to quell a resilient economy and push inflation down further.While money markets and some economists say that another hike is in the cards for this week’s interest rate decision, those who spoke to Global News argue the central bank is better off waiting to move off the sidelines and signalling a possible increase later this summer.The Bank of Canada’s rate hike campaign has been on a “conditional pause” since March, following eight consecutive increases that raised the central bank’s policy rate to 4.5 per cent, up from the lows of 0.25 per cent seen through much of the pandemic.The central bank said it could remain on pause as long as data continued to show the economy was cooling enough to bring inflation back down to its two per cent target, which has been forecast to reach in 2024.The rate increases to date have raised the cost of borrowing for Canadians and their banks in an effort to cool the economy and take some of the steam out of inflation, which reached 40-plus-year highs in 2022.Inflation has declined significantly, though Statistics Canada’s headline reading ticked back up slightly to 4.4 per cent in the latest consumer price index report for April from March’s 4.3 per cent.The economy, meanwhile, has proved hotter than the Bank of Canada’s estimates: gross domestic product (GDP) was higher than forecast in the first quarter of the year, and expectations of a pronounced slowdown haven’t yet materialized.Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, tells Global News that the economy can only run unchecked for so long before a flurry of spending drives prices
Tiff Macklem - Here’s when markets expect the Bank of Canada to start cutting interest rates - globalnews.ca - Canada
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Here’s when markets expect the Bank of Canada to start cutting interest rates
Bank of Canada will hold interest rates at the 15-year high 4.50 per cent until the end of 2023, before starting to cut rates at the start of next year, according to a median of market participants in the central bank’s survey released on Monday.The bank’s survey of market participants, the second iteration of the poll first released in February, showed a median of the participants forecasting interest rates dropping to 3.0 per cent by the end of 2024.Market participants in the first survey released in February had said rates would fall to 4.0 per cent by the end of the year.A median of 26 participants predicted a 0.1 per cent contraction of gross domestic product at the end of 2023, compared with a 0.4 per cent decline forecast in the last survey.The participants, surveyed from March 9 to 23, cited weaker housing market and tightening of financial conditions among top risks that could curtail Canadian growth.The bank raised interest rates eight consecutive times through January in an effort to cool high inflation that peaked at a four decade high last year.The bank has since kept rates steady at two meetings, in part because Governor Tiff Macklem has said the goal is to slow growth, but avoid a recession.Annual inflation rate eased to 4.3 per cent in March, but is still more than double the bank’s two per cent target.
Sean Simpson - Priced out of summer vacation? Here’s how to book ‘budget-conscious’ travel - globalnews.ca - Canada
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Priced out of summer vacation? Here’s how to book ‘budget-conscious’ travel
Inflation and fears about the direction of the economy are putting a chill in most Canadians’ summer travel plans, according to new polling.But experts tell Global News “budget-conscious” vacations are still in the cards for many looking to get away.Roughly six in 10 Canadians are scaling back their vacation plans due to inflation or the uncertain economic content, according to an Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News. Read more: Need a cheap getaway? Here’s where to go if you’re looking to save on airfare The results of the survey released Sunday show that almost a quarter of Canadians feel there is no way a summer vacation would be affordable.“Just as inflation was the ‘Grinch that stole Christmas’, so too it’s rearing its ugly head again and it’s impacting the summer vacation plans for a lot of Canadians,” says Sean Simpson, senior vice-president of Ipsos Global Affairs.While overall inflation has eased from highs seen last summer, price pressures have been particularly sticky on the services side of the equation, affecting how much Canadians pay for hotels, dining out and other travel-related expenses.And after a year that saw rising interest rates push up costs Canadians are paying on their debt, roughly six in 10 respondents say they’re prioritizing other expenses over vacations this year.But for many Canadians, vacations are out of reach when they matter most.
James Orlando - Soft, hard or ‘bumpy’ landing? Gauging Canada’s odds of a recession - globalnews.ca - Canada - city Ottawa
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Soft, hard or ‘bumpy’ landing? Gauging Canada’s odds of a recession
Ottawa’s 2023 budget — will Canada’s previously roaring economy coast into a so-called “soft landing” as it slows, or tumble sharply into a recession?Ongoing calls from a chorus of economists predicting a recession to hit Canada in 2023 have come up against surprisingly strong economic data in the early part of the year, making the tea leaves of an economic downturn especially hard to read.A recession is a widespread decline in economic activity over a certain period of time – usually defined as two straight quarters of negative growth.Ottawa’s 2023 budget bases its economic forecast on a consensus of private sector economists.That document, released March 28, showed that economists’ place the odds of a recession higher than when they were last polled for the 2022 fall economic update.But if the economy is supposed to be slowing down right now, someone might want to tell the economy.January’s gross domestic product (GDP) figures outpaced initial estimates from Statistics Canada with 0.6 per cent growth, rebounding from the flat reading in the final quarter of 2022.Canada’s labour market meanwhile held tight with a 5.0 per cent unemployment rate through the first quarter of 2023. The country’s employers have been in a hiring mood as of late, with net 383,000 positions added since last September.
Jagmeet Singh - Grocery CEOs defend ‘reasonable profitability’ in grilling over soaring food costs - globalnews.ca - Canada - county Weston
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Grocery CEOs defend ‘reasonable profitability’ in grilling over soaring food costs
inflation and are doing everything they can to keep prices low for Canadians, pinning the blame on suppliers and the global market.But many MPs on the House of Commons agriculture committee were not buying what the CEOs were selling, repeatedly asking the executives to square rising profits with grocery costs that are forcing families to make hard choices at the checkout aisle.“How much profit is too much profit?” asked NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who has made food inflation and alleged “greedflation” by grocers a top issue for his party.“Is there no limit to how much profit you can make on the backs of Canadians that are struggling because they can’t afford their groceries?”“Reasonable profitability is an important part of operating a successful business,” said Loblaw Companies CEO Galen Weston Jr., who stated several times during his testimony that his company makes $1 in profit for every $25 sold.Singh, who’s not a regular member of the committee, advertised his showdown with Weston in a slate of social-media posts ahead of the meeting.Weston appeared alongside Metro Inc. CEO Eric La Fleche and Michael Medline, CEO of Empire Co., which operates chains including Sobeys, Safeway and FreshCo.All three companies and their executives have been increasingly under scrutiny for the prices of the food on their shelves.While headline inflation has shown signs of cooling in recent months, prices for food purchased from the grocery store were again up 11.4 per cent in January, according to Statistics Canada.An analysis from Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab published in November found all three top grocers beat their five-year averages for profit in the first half of 2022, with Loblaw beating its previous best results
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