Bank of Canada: Latest News

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Statistics Canada - Andrew Grantham - Unemployment rate rises for the 1st time since August amid ‘cracks’ in job market - globalnews.ca - Canada
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Unemployment rate rises for the 1st time since August amid ‘cracks’ in job market
unemployment rate rose to 5.2 per cent in May, Statistics Canada said Friday, a sign of weakening in the country’s tight labour market that will help inform the Bank of Canada’s future interest rate decisions.Employment overall was little changed in the month, the agency said, with a modest 17,000 jobs lost. Employment fell among youth aged 15-24 and rose among those aged 25-54.While part-time employment rose to the tune of 15,500 jobs in May, Canadian employers collectively cut 32,700 full-time positions, according to the report.The unemployment rate rose for the first time since August 2022, StatCan said, up from 5.0 per cent in April.The job report this morning comes after the Bank of Canada’s decision this week to raise its key interest rate target by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75 per cent.In raising its key rate, the central bank said the labour market remains tight, reflecting continued strong demand for workers.“Some cracks appeared within the Canadian labour market in May, but these may not yet be wide enough to convince the Bank of Canada that inflation is about to meaningfully cool off,” said CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham in a note to clients Friday morning.He suggested the weaker jobs figures might see markets scale back expectations of additional rate hikes to come, but the Bank of Canada’s policymakers may need to see “further softening” to convince them they can leave rate unchanged.Average hourly wages were up 5.1 per cent in May, continuing to outpace inflation.
Bank of Canada’s rate decision looms. Will the hot economy push it to hike? - globalnews.ca - Canada
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Bank of Canada’s rate decision looms. Will the hot economy push it to hike?
Bank of Canada’s interest rate pause is set for its toughest challenge yet on Wednesday as policymakers weigh whether another hike is needed to quell a resilient economy and push inflation down further.While money markets and some economists say that another hike is in the cards for this week’s interest rate decision, those who spoke to Global News argue the central bank is better off waiting to move off the sidelines and signalling a possible increase later this summer.The Bank of Canada’s rate hike campaign has been on a “conditional pause” since March, following eight consecutive increases that raised the central bank’s policy rate to 4.5 per cent, up from the lows of 0.25 per cent seen through much of the pandemic.The central bank said it could remain on pause as long as data continued to show the economy was cooling enough to bring inflation back down to its two per cent target, which has been forecast to reach in 2024.The rate increases to date have raised the cost of borrowing for Canadians and their banks in an effort to cool the economy and take some of the steam out of inflation, which reached 40-plus-year highs in 2022.Inflation has declined significantly, though Statistics Canada’s headline reading ticked back up slightly to 4.4 per cent in the latest consumer price index report for April from March’s 4.3 per cent.The economy, meanwhile, has proved hotter than the Bank of Canada’s estimates: gross domestic product (GDP) was higher than forecast in the first quarter of the year, and expectations of a pronounced slowdown haven’t yet materialized.Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, tells Global News that the economy can only run unchecked for so long before a flurry of spending drives prices
Digital loonie? Bank of Canada wants your thoughts on potential new currency - globalnews.ca - China - India - Canada - county Canadian
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Digital loonie? Bank of Canada wants your thoughts on potential new currency
Bank of Canada wants to know what Canadians think about the possibility of a digital loonie.Consultations on what Canadians would like to have included in a digital currency are open online from May 8 until June 19, the Bank of Canada said Monday.The central bank notes, however, that the decision to launch a digital version of the Canadian dollar remains in the hands of Parliament and physical coins and banknotes aren’t going anywhere.Compared to private cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which can sometimes fluctuate in value like a stock, a digital currency backed by the central bank would not be subject to the same level of volatility — it would always retain the same value as a Canadian dollar.The central bank wants to know how Canadians would use a hypothetical digital currency, as well as any concerns they have about security and accessibility.While the Bank reassured Canadians in its announcement that physical banknotes will always be available to those who want them, it said in a release Monday there could be a future where cash transactions are not common in day-to-day banking, which could inadvertently exclude some from the financial system.There is currently no need for a digital currency in Canada, the central bank said in the release.But it added that if other central banks or private organizations eventually adopt their own digital currencies — China and India are two such countries that have already taken the step — falling behind could be a risk to Canada’s economy and the stability of the financial system.“As Canada’s central bank, we want to make sure everyone can always take part in our country’s economy,” Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor at the central bank, said in a statement.
Tiff Macklem - Here’s when markets expect the Bank of Canada to start cutting interest rates - globalnews.ca - Canada
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Here’s when markets expect the Bank of Canada to start cutting interest rates
Bank of Canada will hold interest rates at the 15-year high 4.50 per cent until the end of 2023, before starting to cut rates at the start of next year, according to a median of market participants in the central bank’s survey released on Monday.The bank’s survey of market participants, the second iteration of the poll first released in February, showed a median of the participants forecasting interest rates dropping to 3.0 per cent by the end of 2024.Market participants in the first survey released in February had said rates would fall to 4.0 per cent by the end of the year.A median of 26 participants predicted a 0.1 per cent contraction of gross domestic product at the end of 2023, compared with a 0.4 per cent decline forecast in the last survey.The participants, surveyed from March 9 to 23, cited weaker housing market and tightening of financial conditions among top risks that could curtail Canadian growth.The bank raised interest rates eight consecutive times through January in an effort to cool high inflation that peaked at a four decade high last year.The bank has since kept rates steady at two meetings, in part because Governor Tiff Macklem has said the goal is to slow growth, but avoid a recession.Annual inflation rate eased to 4.3 per cent in March, but is still more than double the bank’s two per cent target.
James Orlando - Soft, hard or ‘bumpy’ landing? Gauging Canada’s odds of a recession - globalnews.ca - Canada - city Ottawa
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Soft, hard or ‘bumpy’ landing? Gauging Canada’s odds of a recession
Ottawa’s 2023 budget — will Canada’s previously roaring economy coast into a so-called “soft landing” as it slows, or tumble sharply into a recession?Ongoing calls from a chorus of economists predicting a recession to hit Canada in 2023 have come up against surprisingly strong economic data in the early part of the year, making the tea leaves of an economic downturn especially hard to read.A recession is a widespread decline in economic activity over a certain period of time – usually defined as two straight quarters of negative growth.Ottawa’s 2023 budget bases its economic forecast on a consensus of private sector economists.That document, released March 28, showed that economists’ place the odds of a recession higher than when they were last polled for the 2022 fall economic update.But if the economy is supposed to be slowing down right now, someone might want to tell the economy.January’s gross domestic product (GDP) figures outpaced initial estimates from Statistics Canada with 0.6 per cent growth, rebounding from the flat reading in the final quarter of 2022.Canada’s labour market meanwhile held tight with a 5.0 per cent unemployment rate through the first quarter of 2023. The country’s employers have been in a hiring mood as of late, with net 383,000 positions added since last September.
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