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Potential long-term economic consequences of the pandemic

India pandemic economy shock
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₹146-149 trillion at constant (2011-12) prices. Two years have been lost to the pandemic. But where will the economy go from there?

In a recent exercise at the National Council of Applied Economic Research, we have looked at a few possible scenarios and their long-term implications, benchmarked against a counterfactual growth path the economy might have followed had there been no pandemic.

These exercises reveal hysteresis—effects of the pandemic shock that will persist for a very long time. In the optimistic scenario, it is assumed that after recording a growth of over 10% this year, the economy will continue to grow at a high trend rate of 7%.

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COVID-19
United States
United States
Cases: 46 252 513
Deaths: 750 423
Recovered: 0
India
India
Cases: 34 321 025
Deaths: 459 652
Recovered: 0
Brazil
Brazil
Cases: 21 835 785
Deaths: 608 235
Recovered: 0
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United Kingdom
Cases: 9 215 683
Deaths: 141 607
Recovered: 0
Russia
Russia
Cases: 8 494 589
Deaths: 237 619
Recovered: 0
Detail statistic
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