US COVID vaccination may have saved 240,000 lives in first 6 monthsThe US COVID-19 vaccination program may have averted 14 million infections, saved more than 240,000 lives, and prevented upwards of 1.1 million hospitalizations in the first half of 2021, according to estimates from a modeling study yesterday in JAMA Network Open.Led by York University scientists in Toronto, the research team simulated the pandemic trajectory under two scenarios: no vaccinations and a program that reached only half the actual daily vaccination rate.
Total infections, hospitalizations, and deaths under each scenario from Dec 12, 2020, to Jun 30, 2021, were compared with simulated trends under US vaccination campaigns.The researchers didn't consider waning vaccine immunity or recovery from COVID-19 in their estimations.Relative to the no-vaccination scenario, the actual US vaccination campaign prevented upwards of 14 million COVID-19 infections, saved an estimated 240,797 lives (95% credible interval [CrI], 200,665 to 281,230), and prevented 1,133,617 hospitalizations (95% CrI, 967,487 to 1,301,881).COVID-19 vaccination may have also averted a wave of infections driven by the Alpha (B117) variant in April 2021.
The wave was projected to have led to 4,409 deaths (95% CrI, 2,865 to 6,312) and 17,979 hospitalizations (95% CrI, 13,191 to 23,219).Under the scenario of daily vaccination rates of half that of the reported rate, another 77,283 (95% CrI, 48,499 to 104,519) deaths may have occurred, along with 336,000 more hospitalizations (95% CrI, 225,330 to 440,109)."Our analytical model suggested that the US COVID-19 vaccination program was associated with a reduction in the total hospitalizations and deaths by nearly half during the first 6