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US COVID prevalence likely 60% higher than reported, experts say

University of Washington at Seattle researchers estimate that 60% of US COVID-19 cases have gone unreported due to biases in test data and delayed reporting, according to a modeling study yesterday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The researchers used multiple data sources, including likely unbiased representative random testing surveys from Indiana and Ohio, to estimate the true number of coronavirus infections in both the country and in each state for 1 year starting in March 2020. Their model included likelihood components that combine data on COVID-19 deaths, confirmed cases, and the number of tests administered each day.

Senior author Adrian Raftery, PhD, said in a University of Washington press release that each

covid-19 testing infection

Adrian Raftery

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