Experts such as epidemiologists and statisticians were much more accurate than the public in predicting the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths that would occur in the United Kingdom and worldwide, but both groups significantly underestimated the pandemic's true impact, according to a study today in PLOS One.In April 2020, University of Cambridge researchers surveyed 140 UK experts and 2,086 members of the general public, asking them to make four quantitative predictions about how the pandemic would unfold by the end of 2020.
Specifically, they were asked to forecast the number of infections and deaths in the United Kingdom and the worldwide case-fatality rate.The aim was to determine the accuracy of expert "off-the-cuff" forecasts