A modeling study led by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) researchers estimates that COVID-19 vaccination averted 27 million infections, 1.6 million hospitalizations, and 235,000 deaths among US adults from December 2020 to September 2021.In the study, published yesterday in JAMA Network Open, the researchers extrapolated the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths from hospitalization data from Dec 1, 2020, to Sep 30, 2021.
Then they combined the estimates with data on vaccine uptake and effectiveness to estimate the risk of infection, hospitalization, and death.Vaccination was considered two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccine or one dose of the Johnson & Johnson version.Impact greatest in 65+ age-groupThe CDC investigators estimated that COVID-19 vaccination averted about 27 million infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 22 million to 34 million), 1.6 million hospitalizations (95% UI, 1.4 million to 1.8 million), and 235,000 deaths (95% UI, 175,000 to 305,000).
Vaccination was estimated to prevent 30% (95% UI, 27% to 33%) of all expected infections, 33% (95% UI, 30% to 36%) of hospitalizations, and 34% (95% UI, 28% to 40%) of deaths over the study period.
The estimated percentage of expected infections, hospital admissions, and deaths prevented rose as vaccine uptake increased over time.